Socio-economic factors associated with fertility rate in Iran: An ecological study, 2017–2021

Articles in Press

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

Health Services Management Research Center, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran

10.22062/jhad.2026.202136.1217

Abstract

Background: Declining fertility rates have become a major demographic concern in many countries, including Iran. Identifying the socio-economic determinants of fertility is essential for designing effective population policies. This study aimed to investigate the association between selected economic and social factors and fertility rates in Iran.
Methods: This ecological panel study used aggregated data from 31 provinces of Iran over the period 2017–2021. The fertility rate was considered the dependent variable. Independent variables included economic indicators (household income and expenditure, food and non-food expenditure, inflation rate, unemployment rate, female employment rate, and GDP per capita) and social indicators (literacy rate, marriage rate, and divorce rate). Panel data models were estimated using fixed effects with cluster-robust standard errors.
Results: Social variables showed more consistent associations with fertility than economic variables. The marriage rate exhibited the strongest positive association with fertility (β = 0.23, p < 0.01), whereas the divorce rate showed the strongest negative association (β = −0.34, p < 0.01). Among economic factors, household income (β = −0.11, p < 0.05) and food expenditure (β = −0.17, p < 0.01) were negatively associated with fertility in the multivariate models. In contrast, macroeconomic variables such as inflation, unemployment, female employment, and GDP per capita were not statistically significant after controlling for other factors.
 
Conclusion: Fertility patterns in Iran appear more closely associated with social dynamics than with short-term economic conditions. These findings suggest that policies aimed at increasing fertility should prioritize strengthening family formation—particularly by facilitating marriage and reducing divorce—while also addressing household economic constraints. The results should be interpreted at the provincial level and do not imply causal relationships.

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Health and Development Journal

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 19 May 2026

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History

  • Receive Date: 29 November 2025
  • Accept Date: 19 May 2026

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